Ноябрь 2013 Высокий риск землетрясения в "Зоне Вранча" Румыния

Формально мелкое землетрясение в ноябре уже было 
Magnitude 3.2
2013-11-17 18:56:59.0 UTC
14 km W of Nereju, Romania
Проблема в том что зафиксировано на глубине около 147 км, то есть на участке стыковки Южных (Румыния) и Восточных (Украина) Карпат. 

Землетрясения в этом регионе бывают редко, но они сильные. Ещё одна проблема - практически полное отсутствие сейсмостойкого строительства как в Румынии (даже в Семиградье) так и в Одесской области Украины.
Вероятным предвестником землетрясения также является разогрев грунтовых вод в уезде Галац (ближайший к Украине), тамошние жители уже вторую неделю жалуются на теплую воду в колодцах. Притом с водой им не везет катастрофически - из-за выхода реки из берегов и последовавшего наводнения уже погибли несколько человек.
Совпадения и случайности бывают. Но общий риск природных катаклизмов на Земле связан с недавними вспышками на Солнце наивысшего Х-класса.

P.S.

На следующий день после написания этого сообщения снова было мелкое землетрясение в указанном регионе

Magnitude 3.1
2013-11-20 07:46:16.9 UTC
Region  Romania     

В этот раз на глубине в 100 км (т.е. выше предыдущего). Не смотря на шансы, что избыточная энергия на стыке Карпатских гор будет израсходована на серию мелких землетрясений, вместо одного крупного - расслабляться ещё рано.

P.S.S. 

Cегодняшнее землетрясение тоже ещё не повод для паники, хотя поднятие Эпицентра с глубины с каждым следующим землетрясением настораживает.

Magnitude 4.4
2013-11-21 06:38:52.0  UTC
Depth 90 km,

Romania

P.S.S.S.

Возврат в исходную точку - на глубину 142 км

Magnitude 3.2
2013-11-22 16:46:11.0  UTC
Depth 142 km,

Romania

P.S.S.S.S.

Magnitude    ML 3.7
Region          ROMANIA
Date time      2013-11-28 17:04:22.0 UTC
Location        45.61 N ; 26.45 E
Depth           118 (снова напряжение идет к поверхности)
Distances     134 km N of Bucharest

P.S.S.S.S.S. - вот и до Декабря добрались...

Magnitude     3.1
Region           ROMANIA
Date time       2013-12-01 05:56:43.0 UTC
Location         45.72 N ; 26.65 E
Depth             106 km
Distances    149 km N of Bucharest
Притом землетрясения на большой глубине уже по обе стороны Румынских Карпат:
в Зоне Вранча и на Границе с Сербией
Magnitude    3.4
Region          ROMANIA
Date time      2013-12-01 01:42:08.2 UTC
Location        44.67 N ; 22.71 E
Depth            191 km
Distances     178 km E of Belgrade, Serbia 

P.S.S.S.S.S.S -финала ещё не видно, тем более мелкие (Magnitude <3) не считаем

Magnitude     3.3
Region            ROMANIA
Date time        2013-12-05 10:51:04.0 UTC
Location          45.60 N ; 26.47 E
Depth             135 km
Distances       133 km N of Bucharest, Romania 
Местные жители говорят, что во время толчков были слышны звуки, похожие на раскаты грома.

Некоторые жители Галаца собрали вещи, чтобы в любой момент быть готовыми покинуть жилища. Они опасаются отправлять детей в школу:

«Мы были в детском саду, когда ощутили толчки. Я побоялась оставлять ребенка, пока сюда добегу, боюсь, будет уже поздно. Так что сидим одетыми, ждем. Приготовили все необходимое: одежду, документы. Та еще морока!».

«Собрала специальный пакет. Пусть нас эвакуируют отсюда, не могу здесь больше оставаться. Из-за постоянных толчков вода в колодце непригодна для питья, она мутная и пахнет серой».

«У меня два колодца. В обоих из них вода желтого цвета. Пробовал выкачать насосом, чтобы обновилась, но вода все равно остается желтой. Даже лошадь ее не пьет».

P.S.S.S.S.S.S.S

Magnitude     3.6
Region           ROMANIA
Date time      2013-12-09 17:55:45.0 UTC
Location        45.66 N ; 26.52 E
Depth             90 km
Distances       140 km N of Bucharest

P.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S

Magnitude    3.0
Region          ROMANIA
Date time      2013-12-11 04:29:36.0 UTC
Location        45.81 N ; 26.76 E
Depth            110 km
Distances      162 km N of Bucharest

P.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S

Magnitude     3.2
Region           ROMANIA
Date time       2013-12-12 16:33:57.3 UTC
Location        45.66 N ; 26.59 E
Depth             88 km
Distances       142 km N of Bucharest 

P.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S

Magnitude     3.0
Region           ROMANIA
Date time      2013-12-13 01:40:22.1 UTC
Location        45.60 N ; 26.47 E
Depth            109 km
Distances      133 km N of Bucharest

P.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S

Magnitude     3.3
Region           ROMANIA
Date time      2013-12-16 08:27:30.7 UTC
Location        45.50 N ; 26.48 E
Depth            116 km
Distances      122 km N of Bucharest, Romania

P.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S

Magnitude      3.1
Region             ROMANIA
Date time        2013-12-27 21:53:56.2 UTC
Location          45.67 N ; 26.55 E
Depth              126 km
Distances        142 km N of Bucharest

P.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S

Magnitude      3.7
Region            ROMANIA
Date time        2013-12-29 19:22:12.0 UTC
Location          45.64 N ; 26.46 E
Depth             145 km
Distances       137 km N of Bucharest, Romania

In the old times, people panicked from the bad news, nowadays they panic from absence of information. It is necessary to provide full access to information about the ionospheric precursors of earthquakes and after the earthquake access to mobile communication for searching injured.

The main task of crisis management is temporary concentrating of resources and unconcentrating of population in a dangerous area.

It is necessary to use those methods of medical aid, which proved their effectiveness during the most terrible disasters.

1. Introduction

Solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes. Maximum quake frequency occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity. Terrestrial solar flare effects which are the actual coupling mechanisms which trigger quakes appear to be either abrupt accelerations in the earth's angular velocity or surges of telluric currents in the earth's crust [1, 2].

Relation between solar activity and seismic and volcanic activity has been shown by many scientists [3-18]. 

As well known the influence on Earth is not determined by the solar radiation parameters but is determined by parameters of absorbed radiation. Therefore the correlation mechanism of solar activity and seismic activity has not been fully defined. First-ever, on the bursts of solar activity, reacts ionosphere. The results of the study [19] show some unusual perturbations observed in 1–25 days before and 2–3 days after the main shock of every earthquake indicating a clear seismo-ionospheric link and may be used as earthquake precursors. Such subionospheric plasma irregularities have been observed by satellites prior to seismic activity electric and magnetic field perturbations in the upper ionosphere [20]. The final results showed that the ionospheric vertical total electron content around the epicenter of earthquake in China (May 12, 2008), increased obviously 9 days before the earthquake, decreased significantly 6 days before the earthquake and increased strikingly 3 days before the earthquake. The spatial sizes of the vertical total electron content decrement and increment by more than 30% extended larger than 1500 km in latitude and 4000 km in longitude [21]. A great earthquake of M 7.8 occurred near the Okushiri island off the Hokkaido southwest coast in northern Japan at July 12, 1993. Systematic decreases of the ionospheric F₂-layer critical frequency, f_oF₂ below its monthly median, were observed at Wakkanai, Kokubunji and Yamagawa, Japan from 3 days before the earthquake onset to 3 days after it. The virtual height of the ionospheric F-layer, h′F increased above its monthly median for nights of July 9, 10 and 11 before the earthquake onset at Kokubunji; while the h′F decreased below its monthly median for nights of July 12, 13 and 14 after the earthquake onset. Local geomagnetic activities near the three ionospheric stations were quiet or moderate with no geomagnetic storm from July 5 to July 16. The ionospheric disturbances observed were independent of solar–terrestrial events [22]. Ionospheric F-region disturbances and anomalous f₀E_s increases were separately observed within a few days before two great earthquakes in geomagnetic and solar quiet conditions. The anomalous f₀E_s increases before the earthquake onset could be caused by unknown super-volt seismo discharges since there was no thunderstorm cloud over the observatories [23]. Recent theoretical and experimental studies explicitly demonstrated the ability of space technologies to identify and monitor the specific variations at near-earth space plasma, atmosphere and ground surface associated with approaching severe earthquakes which appear several days (from 1 to 5) before the seismic shock over the seismically active areas. Taking into account that the most promising are the ionospheric precursors of earthquakes the special attention is devoted to the radiophysical techniques of the ionosphere monitoring. For this purpose, are using different methods such as vertical sounding, in-situ probes, ionosphere tomography, GPS total electron content and GPS Meteorology technologies [24]. Ionospheric variability has become a subject of one of the most intensive studies in the area of ionospheric physics. Regardless of our improved knowledge of the ionosphere dynamics, the day-to-day variability still lies within the framework of statistical estimations and the underlying physical mechanisms are far from being fully understood. Significant deviations from monthly median values are observed from time to time in ionospheric records during completely quiet solar and geophysical conditions and are not fully understood [25].

2. Discussion and recommendations

2. 1. Preparation

Ionosphere phenomena are global in nature and should not be studied only locally. Global maps of the ionosphere should be constructed on the same principles as the google-maps: summation of all data from various sources with different scales and for different heights. Changes in the ionosphere are described by many parameters, each of which should be submitted. Different techniques should clarify the errors in measuring the same phenomena. Free access to the source material will allow enthusiasts to make their conclusions. Only complete, without gaps, the array of data on the correlations of trigger mechanisms of solar activity, the response of the ionosphere and magnetosphere, and seismic activity as a consequence can help to build accurate predictions.

At present, about the high risk of earthquakes it's possible to find out in about 3 days. Preparing is needed in any case, even if the prediction is given with a low probability. A set of actions to simplify the subsequent work in the region of the proposed earthquake or/and tsunami:

- unscheduled replenishment of drinking water, products with long shelf life, pharmacological agents and blood;

- unloading of transport arteries from idle transport, strengthening the pillars of bridges especially to the places of contact with the bottom, creation of new temporary roads and the creation of new, reliable fixed, pontoon crossings over water;

- emergency inspection and repair of electrical, aqueduct, pumping stations, drainage channels  and stations of mobile communication;

- increase in the number of ambulances and fire trucks;

- sending some of patients to other hospitals outside the area of the proposed earthquake to increase the number of free places, opening of additional temporary emergency rooms;

- transfer in the area of medical and firefighting or enough large transport helicopters, and the creation of landing sites near hospitals;

- relocation to the area of radiocommunications-aircraft for duplication and unloading of mobile communication networks;

- ordering and delivery to the region elevating construction equipment;

- creating fencing in parking lots.

Recommendations for those people who stayed in the region of increased danger:

- picking of documents on own property, photographing valuables on film camera with evidence of the date (daily newspaper in the frame for example), with the absence of time filming property on the video;

- sticking of the film or scotch on the glass (protection from sharp fragments), additional fixation of furniture from falling;

- regular charging of mobile phone, creation of virtual duplicates of important information;

- purchase of potable water, food long-term storage, activated carbon and first aid staff.

In the case of emergency evacuation need to wear comfortable clothing with a sufficient number of pockets and take documents, money (and jewelery), keys.

2. 2. After the earthquake

In the old times, people panicked from the bad news, nowadays they panic from absence of information. First of all need to restore an uninterrupted mobile communications.

Methods of searching for missing:

- search by mobile phone signals;

- using an infrared camera for search by the heat from the body.

The main factor of strong hitting injuries - it is Pain shock, therefore drunken people easier going through strong damage, even though amount of alcohol does not affect the amount of damage. Doctors should provide medical assistance to victims (at least analgesic), even before them will pull out of the rubble.

If it is not possible to travel on the transport, it is better travel on roller skates.

Only hovercraft can to move rapidly on the destroyed roads. Only aviation can provide rapid delivery of humanitarian relief. Military transport aircrafts -  C-130 [26],An-70 [27], A-400M [28], C-17 [29]
can land on ground airfields. In areas even without ground airfields is possible to allocate water area for landing hydroplanes.

Approximately to 4 th day, most people remained under the rubble are dying. Cold dead body is not fixed by infrared camera. Specially trained dogs can found corpses by smell. For relatives-search and identification of the victims is better to use DNA tests. Everyone who wants to leave the dangerous area should have such opportunity. It is necessary to remember that after the tsunami underground water wash out holes in the ground which could be invisible under the asphalt.

2. 3. Accidents at nuclear plants

Technogenic disasters are always complicates the situation.

It is possible to protect from external radiation exposure by decreasing time spent in the danger zone. The plates from lead can to protect from radiation, but it is necessary to know the exact location of the radiation source.

The dose of internal irradiation is formed basically by biologically toxic transuranium elements. Universal effects of radiation exposure are manifested in the form increase the acidity in the tracks of charged particles. As a result, in the irradiated organism is an increase in the number of free radicals [31]. The dose of internal irradiation in direct relation to quantity of radioactive isotopes dissolved in biological liquids. Within 1 h after inhalation, 90% of radionuclides are detected in the digestive tract, while the remaining 10% are absorbed directly into the blood. Enterosorbents on the basic of synthetic active carbons are especially effective to treat the ecological dependent diseases stipulated by accumulation in an organism of heavy metals (Hg, Pb, Cd, Ni etc.) and also short- and mid-living radionuclides (¹⁴⁰La, ¹²⁵Te, ¹³¹I, ⁹⁵Zr, ⁹⁵Nb etc.) are appeared in an environment after Chernobyl NPP accident. The use of enterosorbents of this type has allowed realizing preventive maintenance and treatment of staff working in zones of liquidation of catastrophe consequences. At preventive application of enterosorbents (before the beginning and during work) it was possible on the order to reduce a level of radioactive contamination of an organism. In curative variant 10-14 days course of enterosorption in 2-3 times accelerated removal of incorporated radionuclides from an organism. [32]. Relatively rapid radioactive substances are removed from the muscular, nervous tissue and the skin - in the first 5-30 days. Most slowly radio-isotopes leave the bones - for a few months. As sorbents of heavy metals, Zeolites have been used in the liquidation of major accident at Chernobyl [33-35].

2. 4. Elimination of the consequences

Some changes are noninvertible. For example, after a strong earthquake need to make new geological map of cracks, even if they did not appear on the surface. Buildings that turned out above the cracks must be strengthened. Even a weak geological activity can create Electric currents near the surface, therefore above the cracks in the the crust does not need to to build warehouses with flammable materials.

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27. http://www.antonov.com/products/air/transport/AN-70/

28. http://www.airbusmilitary.com/A400M.aspx

29. http://www.boeing.com/defense-space/military/c17/

30. http://www.antonov.com/products/air/transport/AN-124/

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